By Yusuf Danjuma Yunusa
For a democracy to function, there must be an acknowledgment, however begrudging, between the government and the opposition: today’s victors may be tomorrow’s vanquished, and the rule of law must protect all. But in Nigeria, that social contract appears to be disintegrating. Over the past several weeks, a pattern of escalating state-backed aggression against the Action Democratic Congress (ADC) and its prominent members has raised urgent questions about whether the country is sliding from democratic backsliding into outright anarchy.
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which rode to power on a wave of populist reform, now stands accused of deploying the instruments of the state—security agencies, the judiciary, and federal legislators—not to maintain order, but to dismantle its political rivals. The treatment of the ADC, a party that has positioned itself as a formidable alternative, suggests a disturbing new phase in Nigerian politics: one where opposition is no longer met at the ballot box, but with handcuffs, detention cells, and forced disruptions.
The most alarming flashpoint in this escalating crisis was the recent detention of Nasir El-Rufai. While the former governor of Kaduna is a controversial figure who recently defected to the ADC after a falling out with the APC, his treatment under the current administration has sent shockwaves through the political class. Detained for more than a month—critics say unlawfully—by security operatives, El-Rufai’s ordeal was widely interpreted as a message to any high-profile figure considering crossing the aisle.
Legal experts note that the circumstances of the detention lacked the due process required by the Nigerian Constitution. “When a former governor and a senior political figure can be picked up without clear charges, merely for his political affiliations, the rule of law becomes a farce,” said human rights lawyer Fatima Bello. “It signals to every citizen that the state’s coercive power is now a weapon for partisan control.”
This was not an isolated incident. In a move that stunned the legal community, Abubakar Malami, a former Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice—once the chief law officer of the state—was reportedly arrested. The irony of a man who once oversaw the prosecution of political foes now being subjected to the same machinery of state coercion is not lost on political analysts. Malami’s arrest, ostensibly over allegations that many believe are politically motivated, underscores a perilous reality: in this climate, no one is safe from state-sponsored retaliation if they align with the “wrong” party.
While the detention of high-profile chieftains makes headlines, the systematic dismantling of the ADC’s grassroots structure tells an equally grim story. Across several states, the party’s attempts to hold congresses—the lifeblood of any political organization—have been violently disrupted.
Witnesses in states like Osun and Rivers describe scenes of security forces standing by while thugs, allegedly backed by local APC stalwarts, overran ADC congress venues.
“We cannot hold a meeting to elect our leaders without the police storming the hall and telling us we have no permit,” said an ADC state Chieftain. “Yet, the APC can hold rallies of thousands with no questions asked. They are trying to kill us before the election even begins.”
This strategy of administrative strangulation—preventing a party from organizing, selecting candidates, or mobilizing members—is a classic authoritarian tactic. By denying the ADC the ability to function as a cohesive entity, the ruling party is effectively seeking to create a one-party state by attrition.
The Nigerian Constitution guarantees freedom of association and the right to peaceful assembly. However, the current trajectory suggests that these provisions are being rendered null and void for those not aligned with the federal power structure.
When a ruling party uses federal agencies to detain opposition leaders without trial, and allows the disruption of opposition congresses with impunity, it is no longer merely playing “hardball” politics. It is dismantling the architecture of democratic competition.
This descent has dangerous consequences. In an anarchy—whether caused by state collapse or state overreach—the population loses faith in institutions. When citizens believe that the police and courts serve only the political interests of the incumbent, they lose their incentive to engage in peaceful political processes. The result is often a resort to self-help, violence, or, worse, political apathy that leaves a nation vulnerable to authoritarianism.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest democracy, has long been viewed as a beacon of stability in a turbulent region. But the sustained assault on the ADC—from the detention of leaders like El-Rufai and Malami to the violent disruption of its grassroots congresses and also an attack on Obi—signals a dangerous shift.
For the international community, the silence has been deafening. For domestic civil society, the warnings are becoming desperate.
As the political space shrinks, the question is no longer whether Nigeria is becoming an anarchy in the literal sense of lawlessness, but whether it is transforming into a state where the law only applies to those out of favor with the ruling class. If the ADC cannot protect its leaders from detention or its members from political violence, then the social contract that binds the nation is at risk of being torn apart.
For now, the opposition finds itself in a grim paradox: to survive, they must participate in a system that is actively using the instruments of the state to annihilate them. Whether the institutions of justice can be jolted back to life before the slide becomes irreversible remains the defining question of Nigeria’s democratic future.
