By Muhammad Mamman
As Nigeria gears up for the 2027 general election, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a seasoned political strategist, appears poised for a smoother path to re-election. While his 2023 victory emerged from a turbulent campaign, Tinubu’s greatest asset in the upcoming race may not be his own manoeuvres or the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)’s incumbency advantage. Instead, it’s the deepening disarray within the opposition that could hand him a second term on a silver platter.
The opposition—spanning the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party, and the coalition-backed African Democratic Congress (ADC)—is mired in internal squabbles, rendering it incapable of presenting a united front. If this fragmentation persists, it risks repeating the 2023 election, where a splintered opposition vote paved Tinubu’s path to Aso Rock. Here’s how the opposition’s disunity could secure Tinubu’s return to power.
ADC’s Internal Power Struggle
The ADC, envisioned as a robust alternative to the APC, has become a battleground for ambitious presidential hopefuls. Far from uniting disaffected factions, the party is fracturing under the weight of competing egos. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, and former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi are all vying for the ADC’s ticket, each commanding loyal followings but pulling in divergent directions. This tussle threatens to undermine the coalition’s broader appeal and weaken its challenge against Tinubu.
Atiku’s Quiet Dominance
Atiku Abubakar, a titan of opposition politics, is subtly tightening his grip on the ADC. His allies have secured key roles in the party’s National Working Committee, Board of Trustees, and state chapters, fuelling speculation that the coalition may tilt in his favour before the primaries. While this showcases Atiku’s political acumen, it risks alienating other aspirants and diminishing the ADC’s allure as a broad-based platform.
Obi’s Fraying Alliance
Peter Obi’s decision to join the ADC coalition was a calculated move to broaden his support beyond the Labour Party. Yet, tensions are mounting. A leaked memo from his Obidient Movement accused ADC leaders of marginalising Obi and his supporters in key decisions, exposing cracks in the coalition. Without a clear mechanism to unify factions, Obi’s path to the ADC ticket—and his broader influence in the opposition—appears increasingly precarious.
Amaechi’s Bold Gambit
Rotimi Amaechi has taken a direct approach, boldly declaring in an X Space discussion: “I know Tinubu inside out—his strengths, his weaknesses. Give me the ADC ticket, and I’ll defeat him hands down.” Yet, without forging alliances with Atiku or Obi, Amaechi’s chances of rallying the opposition remain slim, further fragmenting the anti-Tinubu vote.
PDP’s Divided Strategy
While the ADC grapples with its internal chaos, the PDP is plotting its own comeback. The party’s Governors’ Forum Chair, Bala Mohammed, has openly courted Peter Obi’s return, suggesting it could bolster their electoral prospects. However, some PDP heavyweights are sceptical of Obi’s one-term pledge, instead floating the idea of former President Goodluck Jonathan as a unifying figure. PDP chieftain Umar Sani recently claimed the North would back Jonathan over Obi, dismissing the latter’s promises as “political posturing.”
The Danger of a Split Vote
With the ADC and PDP competing for the same voter base, the opposition risks repeating the 2023 debacle, where a fragmented vote handed Tinubu victory. Political analysts warn that without a concerted effort to coalesce behind a single candidate, the 2027 election could be a fait accompli for the APC.
In the high-stakes game of Nigerian politics, 24 hours can feel like an eternity. The opposition has time to mend its fractures and forge a united front. But for Tinubu, their disarray is a golden opportunity. Unless his rivals can set aside egos and align, the President’s political mastery and incumbency advantage could make 2027 less a contest and more a coronation.
