The World Bank says 63 per cent of Nigerians—about 140 million people—were living in poverty in 2025, even as inflation cooled.
The figure appears in the bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update (April 2026), titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” released in Abuja.
Poverty has climbed steadily since President Bola Tinubu took office, rising from 56 per cent in 2023 to 61 per cent in 2024 and then to 63 per cent this year.
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The numbers underline a growing split between better-looking macro data and what households actually feel.
Headline inflation dropped from 34.80 per cent in December 2024 to 15.15 per cent a year later, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Food inflation fell even further, from 39.84 per cent to 10.84 per cent.
Yet the World Bank points out that prices are still rising faster than wages. “Household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset still-elevated inflation, and poverty has yet to begin declining,” the report says.
Earlier price surges already wrecked real incomes, and the recent slowdown hasn’t been enough to repair the damage. Global shocks—especially the Middle East conflict—have also kept energy, food, and transport costs high, squeezing low-income families further.
The bank adds that Nigeria’s recent growth has come mainly from services and industry, while agriculture—where more than half the poor work—has trailed behind. That mismatch has capped income gains for the most vulnerable and slowed poverty reduction.
Looking ahead, the World Bank expects poverty to edge down only gradually, starting in 2026, as inflation keeps easing and the macro picture steadies. By 2028 the rate could dip to about 59 per cent, helped by lower food inflation and modest growth.
Still, the decline will be slow, the bank warns, unless Nigeria tackles weak job creation, low farm productivity, and deep inequality.
