The International Monetary Fund has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.4 percent this year, giving a nod to ongoing economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
In its latest World Economic Outlook Update released on Tuesday, the global lender said sub-Saharan Africa is also expected to record a 4 percent growth in 2025, rising to 4.3 percent in 2026. For Nigeria, however, the forecast drops slightly to 3.2 percent in 2026.
“This projection reflects some level of confidence in Nigeria’s ongoing structural adjustments, particularly in the foreign exchange market and fuel subsidy removal,” the report noted.
However, the IMF warned that persistent global tensions, supply chain disruptions, and the risk of renewed tariff battles could still affect commodity-dependent economies like Nigeria.
“Continued uncertainties tied to tariff disputes and geopolitical instability could put pressure on the prices of imported goods,” the report said.
On a broader scale, global growth is expected to hit 3 percent in 2025 and improve slightly to 3.1 percent by 2026. The IMF attributes this to stronger-than-expected spending early in the year, lower US tariff rates compared to previous announcements, and a boost from improved financial conditions.
The report added, “Improved fiscal support in major economies and a weaker US dollar have helped soften the blow of external shocks for many developing countries.”
Still, the growth picture is not evenly spread. The IMF pointed out that inflation remains stubbornly high in the United States and some parts of Europe, while more stability is expected across many African and Asian markets.
For developing economies, growth is pegged at 4.1 percent in 2025 and 4 percent the following year. China, in particular, is expected to grow by 4.8 percent in 2025, an upward revision of 0.8 percentage points.
According to the report, “The stronger-than-expected growth in China is linked to robust early-year economic activity and the easing of tariffs in the US-China trade relationship.”
The IMF also said a recovery in global inventory levels could help cushion the impact of front-loaded spending later in the year.
Back home, economic analysts say Nigeria’s current growth projection is an opportunity to double down on reforms, especially in non-oil sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and services.
Dr Seyi Alao, a financial analyst based in Abuja, said the projection is promising but not a guarantee.
“It’s a signal that the international community is watching what Nigeria is doing. But for this growth to translate into real impact, the government must ensure that inflation is kept in check and infrastructure gaps are addressed,” he said.
