By Muhammad Mamman
Former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Professor Ibrahim Gambari, has cast doubt on the prospects of the All Progressives Congress (APC) sustaining long-term dominance in Nigeria’s political landscape, citing the historical decline of past ruling parties.
Gambari said Nigeria’s political history shows a recurring pattern in which dominant parties eventually fragment or lose power, often under the weight of internal contradictions, governance failures and shifting public expectations.
He referenced the fate of earlier ruling parties, including the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the National Party of Nigeria’s successor-era platforms, noting that none was able to maintain prolonged supremacy despite early dominance.
According to him, the APC, like its predecessors, is not immune to the political dynamics that have reshaped Nigeria’s party system over the decades. He argued that no party can assume permanent control without continuous internal reform, ideological clarity and effective governance.
Gambari stressed that Nigerian voters have historically shown a willingness to abandon ruling parties when expectations are unmet, adding that political longevity depends more on performance and inclusiveness than numerical strength or incumbency.
He further noted that opposition politics remains a critical pillar of democracy, warning that the weakening of alternative voices could breed complacency within ruling parties and ultimately accelerate their decline.
The elder statesman’s comments come amid ongoing debates about party realignments, defections and the future of Nigeria’s multiparty democracy, as political actors position themselves ahead of future electoral contests.
Gambari concluded by urging political parties to prioritise national interest over short-term electoral gains, saying history offers clear lessons for those willing to learn.
