The Fund warns that rising food and energy prices could deepen hardship and worsen food insecurity despite an improved economic outlook.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2026 to 4.2 per cent from its previous projection of 4.1 per cent, while warning that rising food and energy prices could worsen poverty and food insecurity.
The revised projection was contained in the Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, released on Tuesday.
The 0.1 percentage-point upgrade suggests a slightly stronger growth outlook for Africa’s most populous country. However, the IMF’s warning highlights concerns that improved economic performance may not translate into better living conditions for millions of Nigerians.
Higher food and energy costs continue to pose risks to household purchasing power, particularly for low-income families who spend a substantial share of their earnings on basic necessities.
The Fund’s assessment underscores the challenge facing policymakers as they seek to sustain economic growth while addressing the cost-of-living pressures confronting households.
Economic growth measures the expansion of a country’s output of goods and services, but it does not necessarily mean that incomes are rising evenly or that poverty is declining.
For Nigeria, the key challenge will be ensuring that projected growth translates into improved livelihoods, greater economic opportunities and more affordable access to food and other essential goods.
The latest forecast therefore presents a mixed outlook: a modest improvement in expected economic growth alongside persistent risks to household welfare.
Further details of the IMF’s assessment of Nigeria’s economic outlook will help clarify the factors underpinning the revised projection and the risks that could affect the country’s recovery.
