Nigeria’s debt profile is set to climb in the coming years, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting that the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 33.1 percent by 2027 — a politically significant year as Nigerians prepare to head to the polls.
In its latest outlook, the IMF said the anticipated increase reflects sustained fiscal pressures and borrowing needs, even as authorities pursue reforms aimed at stabilising public finances. The 33.1 percent projection, while slightly lower than the Fund’s earlier estimate of 35.3 percent released in October, still marks an upward trend from the 32.3 percent expected in 2026.
The revised figures suggest that although Nigeria’s debt growth may be moderating, the overall burden is unlikely to ease in the short term. Analysts say this trajectory underscores the challenge facing policymakers as they attempt to balance economic recovery efforts with debt sustainability.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, has relied increasingly on borrowing in recent years to finance budget deficits, infrastructure projects and subsidy obligations. While the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains relatively moderate compared with global benchmarks, concerns persist over revenue generation, with a significant portion of government income tied up in servicing debt.
The IMF has repeatedly urged Nigerian authorities to expand revenue mobilisation, improve tax collection and prioritise spending efficiency to reduce fiscal vulnerabilities.
With the 2027 general elections approaching, the projected rise in debt levels could further intensify scrutiny of government spending and economic management, placing fiscal policy at the centre of political debate.
