The continued detention of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai could have political consequences for the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 general elections, with analysts warning that the case may generate sympathy for the former governor.
El-Rufai has been in custody amid corruption-related investigations and court proceedings. His detention has become increasingly political because of his prominent role in northern politics and his alignment with the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Political scientist Dr Kabiru Said Sufi said the impact of the detention would largely depend on how Nigerians perceive the case. He noted that while the issue could currently benefit the APC by keeping an influential opposition strategist away from active politics, a renewed wave of public anger could produce the opposite effect.
“For now, the way it will help the APC is that one of the strategists of the opposition has been taken out of the equation,” Sufi told DAILY POST. However, he said the situation could work against the ruling party if public anger over the detention becomes sustained.
Political commentator Comrade Aminu Rabiu Kano similarly said El-Rufai’s political influence extends beyond his physical presence. He described him as a former governor and prominent northern political figure who played a significant role in the emergence of the APC.
Kano said the government could maintain that the case is about accountability and the rule of law, but stressed that public perception would remain important. He warned that if a significant section of voters came to view the detention as political persecution, the opposition could use the issue as a mobilisation tool ahead of the election.
Comrade Umar Muhammad Kofar Naisa, Country Director of the Society for Educational Development and Socio-Democratic Activities (SEDSAC), offered a stronger assessment, saying the prolonged detention could hurt the APC by generating sympathy for El-Rufai.
“Continued detention of El-Rufai could hurt the APC, especially because he has many supporters as a former governor. It could generate sympathy among the people,” Kofar Naisa said.
He also argued that El-Rufai’s previous role in the political development of President Bola Tinubu’s administration could influence how the case is perceived, while suggesting that his continued detention could create unease among some APC members.
The debate comes as El-Rufai remains a prominent figure within the opposition camp ahead of 2027. The ADC has previously alleged that the Federal Government intends to keep him in custody until after the election, a claim the government has not accepted as its position.
Meanwhile, Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, has also questioned the consistency of Nigeria’s anti-corruption campaign, citing El-Rufai’s prolonged detention and the fact that he has not been convicted of the allegations against him.
The contrasting views underline the uncertainty surrounding the political consequences of the case. While El-Rufai’s detention may limit his direct participation in opposition activities, analysts say its broader impact will depend on public perception, the progress of the court proceedings and how political parties frame the issue as the 2027 election approaches.
