The International Monetary Fund has raised Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.4 percent. It was previously 3.0 percent.
The new projection is giving businesses and investors a fresh dose of optimism. Analysts say it reflects gradual progress in oil production, services, and monetary stability.
“This upgrade is driven by key improvements across oil output, services, and early results from recent macroeconomic reforms,” said analysts at Meristem. “The IMF also pointed to local refining gains easing pressure on forex.”
Nigeria’s GDP numbers for the first quarter of 2025 show growth of 3.1 percent year-on-year. Services led the way with 4.3 percent growth, supported by strong performances in finance, transport, and ICT. Oil grew by 1.9 percent. Agriculture dragged behind with just 0.1 percent, following a deep drop in livestock output.
Currency and price trends may also be helping sentiment. Headline inflation has slowed for three straight months, down to 22.2 percent in June. That’s the lowest since late 2024. The naira has been more stable too, closing July at ₦1,533 to the dollar. That’s a small change compared to the sharp drop during the same period last year.
Oil output has picked up. The country averaged 1.47 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, excluding condensates. With condensates, it reached 1.7 million barrels.
Global oil prices have also moved in Nigeria’s favour, rising from $63 per barrel in April to $71 in July.
“Reduced country risk and improving fundamentals could support better access to funding,” United Capital said in a note to clients. “It opens space for businesses to expand, especially those hit hard by high borrowing costs.”
United Capital added that if the naira keeps gaining, sectors like manufacturing and pharmaceuticals may benefit from cheaper imports.
Cowry Assets said Nigeria and other emerging economies might benefit from softer global inflation and a weaker dollar, but warned that it hinges on continuing reforms.
“With the right reforms in power and agriculture, and continued momentum in the oil sector, GDP growth of 4.1 percent or higher is achievable in 2025,” the report said.
It warned that failure to address key constraints, especially insecurity and power sector debt, could stall progress.
