The All Progressives Congress (APC) appeared to close ranks last weekend at its National Convention held at Eagles Square, Abuja, where President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was adopted as the party’s sole presidential candidate. But as attention shifts from the convention and state congresses to the crucial primaries for 2027, simmering internal contests in several states are emerging as potential flashpoints that threaten to test the party’s cohesion.
Party organisers hailed the convention as a demonstration of unity and readiness to govern, but the rollout of mandatory digital membership registers and compressed primary timetables have accelerated factional manoeuvring, forcing contenders to consolidate support earlier than usual.
Ogun: Succession politics sharpens
Ogun State has become a focal point of contestation as Governor Dapo Abiodun’s second term approaches its end. Quiet rivalries have spilled into the open, with Senator Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi) mounting a visible grassroots campaign after organising successful local congresses in Yewa South. Supporters say his structure in the hinterland currently outshines the official establishment.
Pressure is building from groups such as the Ogun West Initiative, which argues that the governorship should finally rotate to Ogun West — a zone that has not produced a governor since the state’s creation in 1976. Senator Adeola, backed by figures including Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele, is being touted by his supporters as the frontrunner for that argument.
But resistance is growing among Egba and Ijebu elites, who favour a home‑grown candidate. Within the incumbent’s camp, whispers suggest Governor Abiodun may adopt Adesola Elegbeji as a Plan B should Yayi’s momentum become unmanageable; Tokunbo Talabi, the Secretary to the State Government, is also mentioned as a continuity candidate. A reliable source in Ogun West told Sunday Sun that Adeola plans a public declaration after the convention and that the national leadership is managing the situation, reportedly favouring him for the ticket. Eleven men and four women are officially listed as aspirants for the seat.
Kwara: Cold war and zoning demands
In Kwara, an internal standoff between Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s camp and remnants of the Otoge movement has fuelled allegations of register padding ahead of direct primaries. The race is expected to be wide open, with renewed calls from Kwara North for power rotation to a zone that has not produced a governor since 1999. Aspirants from the North, including Senator Sadiq Umar, have pledged unity to avoid vote‑splitting. Some party caucuses, however, complain that the delegate list still favours the governor’s inner circle.
There is also agitation for a Christian candidate to break a long Muslim‑Muslim streak. The national working committee has signalled sympathy for the North’s case but stopped short of formal zoning, instead empowering state leaders to stabilise the contest.
Oyo: Zoning and consensus
The Oyo State APC is attempting a delicate balance between zoning and consensus. Publicity Secretary Olawale Sadare defended recent arrangements as broadly representative across the state’s 33 local government areas and insisted merit will determine the candidate. Professor Adeniyi Olowofela acknowledged the inevitability of discontent but said consensus decisions will be guided by competence and experience.
Lagos: Uncertainty and high‑profile names
Lagos remains uncertain as Governor Babajide Sanwo‑Olu nears the end of his second term. Seyi Tinubu, son of the President, has been the subject of youth‑led draft movements, a prospect that divides opinion. Other names under watch include Senator Tokunbo Abiru, Chief of Staff Femi Gbajabiamila, Deputy Governor Dr. Obafemi Hamzat and Speaker Mudashiru Obasa. Observers say the Governor’s Advisory Council will be pivotal in signalling any preferred successor, while informal expectations persist for a Muslim candidate to follow Sanwo‑Olu, a Christian, in keeping with rotational practice.
Delta: New arrivals, old rivalries
Delta’s recent congresses have exposed a widening split between the old guard and a resurgent bloc formed after the defection of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and several legislators from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC. The defections have reshuffled internal power, sidelining factions led by former Deputy Senate President Ovie Omo‑Agege, according to party sources. Although the new leadership describes the congresses as peaceful, aggrieved stakeholders allege that delegate lists were harmonised behind closed doors rather than settled through transparent voting.
Zamfara: Fresh realignments, lingering frictions
Zamfara’s politics has taken an unexpected turn since Governor Dauda Lawal defected from the PDP to the APC on March 9, 2026. His predecessor, Bello Matawalle, has pledged support and named Lawal as his preferred candidate for 2027, but tensions persist: Lawal’s administration continues to pursue a reported ₦70 billion corruption case against Matawalle. The state’s APC now looks to balance the interests of heavyweights such as Abdul’aziz Yari and Senator Marafa amid the new alignments.
What next
With primaries slated in the coming months and deadlines tightened by new digital registration rules, party actors across these states are racing to lock down delegates, build coalitions and manage grievances. Whether the APC’s National Working Committee can contain these disputes and present cohesive slates ahead of 2027 will be a decisive test of the party’s vaunted unity after the convention.
