By Muhammad Mamman
As Nigeria gears up for the 2027 elections, former President Goodluck Jonathan and Labour Party’s standard-bearer in the last poll, Peter Obi, are increasingly seen as the South’s most viable contenders. Yet, while Obi wrestles with an unpredictable “Obidient” base, Jonathan is being projected as the safer bet—though a formidable obstacle stands in his way.
That obstacle is legal. Following a constitutional amendment passed after he left office in 2015, anyone sworn in as president twice is barred from retaking the oath. Though the PDP insists Jonathan remains eligible, legal experts like Aviation Minister Festus Keyamo, SAN, and activist Chidi Odinkalu have warned that his candidacy could be struck down in court. Jonathan’s allies dismiss such warnings as meddlesome—but the risks remain.
Still, Jonathan’s greatest challenge may not be constitutional—it may be collective amnesia. Nigeria’s political class is banking on the nation’s short memory, one that risks recasting a deeply troubled presidency as a lost “golden era.”
A Record in Question
Jonathan’s five years in power were plagued by insecurity and scandal. At the height of Boko Haram’s insurgency, swathes of the North-East—an area the size of Belgium—fell under terrorist control. Schools, markets, churches, mosques, and even the UN building in Abuja were bombed. The abduction of the Chibok girls became a global symbol of his government’s paralysis.
Compounding matters, Jonathan admitted he believed some within his administration were secretly aiding insurgents. Investigations later revealed that billions of dollars released through the National Security Adviser’s office went unaccounted for.
Meanwhile, his party turned against him. Many northern PDP leaders felt betrayed, believing Jonathan had promised to serve only one term after inheriting power from Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s death.
Oil, Money and Missed Opportunities
Despite record-high oil prices of up to $120 per barrel and production averaging 2.29 million bpd, Nigeria haemorrhaged billions. Between 2009 and 2015, the country lost 268 million barrels of crude to theft and sabotage, costing $8 billion in 2013 alone.
Public finances crumbled. Foreign reserves fell from $40 billion in 2010 to $29.6 billion by the time Jonathan left office. Despite spending ₦3.9 trillion on fuel subsidies during his tenure, strikes paralysed universities, hospitals lacked basic equipment, and states struggled to pay salaries.
His flagship power sector reforms were riddled with corruption: bogus investors acquired assets with promissory notes and were later bailed out with ₦213 billion of public funds. Today’s insolvent distribution companies and crippling electricity debt are part of that legacy.
Romanticising the Past
In today’s climate of soaring prices, subsidy removal, and exchange-rate reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, many Nigerians are tempted to romanticise the Jonathan years. For some, the memory of a stronger naira at ₦197/$ and Nigeria’s fleeting status as Africa’s largest economy outweighs the structural failures of his government.
But nostalgia can be dangerous. Jonathan was voted out in 2015 for reasons that remain stark: insecurity, corruption, and squandered opportunities. The same political elite who abandoned him then are now touting him as a comeback candidate, hoping to exploit public frustration and fading memory.
Whatever the courts may decide, Jonathan’s record speaks for itself—and Nigerians must not forget it.
