President Bola Tinubu may win the forthcoming 2027 polls despite public discontent, The Economist reports.
In a report published on October 1, Nigeria’s Independence Day, The Economist cited a worsening security crisis, the biting effects of economic reforms, and popular political challengers as factors that should work against the president’s re-election bid.
“On the face of it, Mr Tinubu’s cool is surprising,” the newspaper wrote.
Complicated electoral dynamics
The Economist noted that the president’s apparent confidence was not necessarily a reflection of widespread satisfaction with his administration but rather a product of Nigeria’s complicated electoral dynamics.
“Incumbents, with access to the ruling‑party machinery and plentiful cash to dole out goodies, have tended to have an advantage in recent Nigerian elections,” it stated.
The newspaper also identified the fragmentation of the opposition as a factor. Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, leading opposition figures, are flagbearers of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), respectively.
The Economist said Atiku and Obi’s failure to form a joint ticket could prevent opposition votes from being consolidated behind a single candidate. TheCable Index, TheCable’s research and data arm, showed how a unification of opposition votes in the 2023 elections could have unseated Mr Tinubu.
In 2023, Atiku contested under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) while Obi was the Labour Party (LP) candidate. Both men had previously been allies under the PDP.
Quoting Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks, The Economist said: “Because it’s not a united ticket, that anti‑APC vote is not coalesced into a single vote.”
Religion and cynicism as factors
Religion was identified as another factor that may work in Tinubu’s favour. The Economist noted that Tinubu and Vice‑President Kashim Shettima, both Muslims, resonate with the electorate in northern Nigeria, the region with the largest number of votes.
According to the newspaper, religious identity could also influence voters against Obi, a Catholic. “Even voters who like Mr. Obi may rule him out because he is a Catholic; the fact that he has a Muslim running mate may not be enough,” it stated.
The publication also identified political cynicism among some voters as perhaps the most significant factor. It said some voters in northern communities might not judge Tinubu’s administration solely on its record because of their experience of poor public services.
“Many people are living where there has been no real security, no real health care, no real schools. Over time, people’s expectations get lower and lower,” MacEbong was quoted as saying.
The publication cited a woman in Maiduguri who said she intended to vote for Tinubu as a “thank you” for medicine she received at a government hospital.
Voter turnout and identity politics
The Economist linked Tinubu’s prospects to voter turnout, particularly in areas affected by insecurity. It noted that although many voters might be disappointed with the government, they might not necessarily turn that dissatisfaction into votes against the incumbent.
“As long as the security crisis remains unresolved and economic growth, which is expected to hit 4.1% this year, does not translate into concrete improvements in Nigerians’ daily lives, many voters will remain disappointed. Yet few will use the ballot box to express their disappointment,” the publication added.
The paper also pointed to identity politics in parts of the south as potentially playing a role in Tinubu’s likely re‑election, especially in Lagos, the president’s state. “Plenty may swallow whatever bad feelings they have about their day‑to‑day struggles and vote for their ‘son’,” it wrote. “No wonder Mr Tinubu feels safe enough to take extended holidays in Paris.”
