Nigeria recorded a sharp decline in crude oil export earnings in the first half of 2025, even as production levels rose, new figures from the National Bureau of Statistics have shown.
According to the report, crude oil exports totalled N24.92tn between January and June 2025, down from N28.10tn in the same period of 2024. The fall represents an 11.3 per cent loss in value, amounting to N3.18tn.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicated that output increased by 12.7 per cent, with production rising to 266.9 million barrels in H1 2025, compared with 236.7 million barrels in H1 2024. Despite this, earnings fell, underlining what analysts describe as the paradox of higher output and weaker returns.
In the first quarter of 2025, crude exports stood at N12.96tn, down from N15.49tn in Q1 2024 — a drop of 16.3 per cent. In the second quarter, the fall was milder, with exports falling by 5.1 per cent from N12.61tn in Q2 2024 to N11.97tn in Q2 2025.
The share of crude oil in Nigeria’s export profile continued to weaken. Crude accounted for 62.9 per cent of exports in Q1 2025, compared with 80.8 per cent in Q1 2024. By Q2 2025, the share fell further to 52.6 per cent, down from 71.2 per cent in the same quarter of the previous year.
While crude oil earnings declined, non-crude exports surged, rising from N8.79tn in H1 2024 to N18.43tn in H1 2025 — a growth of more than 109 per cent. Total exports climbed to N43.35tn, up from N36.89tn in the first half of 2024, improving Nigeria’s trade balance to N12.64tn.
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Analysts say the development underscores a shift in Nigeria’s export structure. An energy economist, Professor Adeola Adenikinju, noted that falling oil prices have been a major factor. He said, “The decline in crude oil prices is like a two-edged sword. It will lower the prices of refined products, such as petrol, but it will also reduce government revenue and complicate budget implementation.”
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has been diverting volumes to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery under a naira-for-crude supply arrangement. Internal documents earlier showed that crude worth N219.38bn was sold to the refinery in the first four months of 2025.
Industry regulators, however, reported progress in tackling losses. The NUPRC said crude oil losses fell by 50.2 per cent in the first seven months of 2025. “Between January and July 2025, crude oil losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 barrels per day. This marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that have long plagued the industry,” the commission stated.
Despite the improvement in security and monitoring, experts have warned that Nigeria must achieve consistent production above two million barrels per day to meet revenue expectations. Professor Dayo Ayoade of Lagos State University explained, “If output falls short and prices remain weak, the government may face serious budgetary pressure.”
The latest figures show that while Nigeria’s crude oil dominance is fading, the rise in non-oil exports is beginning to reshape the country’s trade outlook.
