The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said Nigeria’s current account balance is expected to rise to $18.81 billion in 2026, up from $16.94 billion recorded in 2025.
According to the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, this increase represents 11.16% of GDP, up from 10.94% in 2025. Increased portfolio investment inflows and external borrowings are projected to keep the financial account in a net borrowing position of $10.15 billion.
The International Investment Position (IIP) is expected to record a net borrowing position of $69.58 billion in 2026, as attractive yields are anticipated to further boost capital inflows. Reforms in the foreign exchange market are expected to sustain exchange rate stability, while external reserves are projected to increase to $51.04 billion.
The outlook for Nigeria is framed against a mixed global environment. Global economic growth is estimated at 3.20% in 2025, slightly below the 3.30% recorded in 2024, weighed down by lingering trade tensions and weaker demand in major economies. However, global inflation moderated to 4.20%, aided by lower energy prices and the continued normalization of supply chains.
Inflation pressures eased over most of 2025 following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics. Headline inflation, which stood at 24.48% in January 2025, declined to an estimated annual average of 21.26%. This reflects the lagged impact of a tight monetary policy stance, improved fiscal-monetary coordination, exchange rate stability, and base effects.
The CBN has projected headline inflation to moderate further to an estimated average of 12.94% in 2026, driven by declining food and premium motor spirit (PMS) prices. However, the apex bank stated that the domestic economy’s outlook is susceptible to several risks.
“Unanticipated headwinds may reverse the expected deceleration in inflation. Inflation projections could be derailed if fiscal expenditure rises disproportionately above the benchmark or if a sudden deterioration in global financial market conditions triggers capital reversals that could rekindle exchange rate volatility.”
