…Whispers of Rift, Regional Demands, and Potential Replacements Fuel Speculation.
By Anastasia John E.
In the labyrinth of Nigerian politics, the relationship between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his Vice President, Kashim Shettima, is under intense scrutiny, sparking speculation about a potential fallout and a dramatic shift in the 2027 political landscape. A social media post, though fact-checked and deemed unproven, alleging Shettima’s lamentations of being relegated to a mere regional appeaser, has ignited a firestorm of debate. This, coupled with the abrupt resignation of Hakeem Baba Ahmed, Shettima’s Political Adviser, has fueled perceptions of a widening chasm within Aso Rock.
The Kaduna Solidarity Vanguard, a political pressure group, insists that Baba Ahmed’s departure stemmed from the realization that Shettima was being sidelined by Tinubu. Sources within the presidency, speaking to The ICIR, corroborated these claims, citing the Vice President’s diminishing influence and the restricted access of his staff. The narrative painted is one of a once-trusted ally now relegated to the periphery, with his memos diluted and his interactions with key officials curtailed.
This alleged estrangement has drawn comparisons to the experiences of former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo under President Buhari, where constitutional roles were often rendered symbolic. The National Economic Council (NEC), chaired by Shettima, witnessed a similar dilution of authority when Tinubu disregarded the governors’ input on the Tax Reform Bill.
Adding fuel to the fire are allegations of influence peddling by First Lady Remi Tinubu and National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu. Villa sources claim Remi Tinubu harbors distrust towards Shettima, believing him to be engaging in political machinations, while Ribadu is perceived as strategically positioning himself to replace Shettima in 2027.
The regional dynamics further complicate the situation. Northern political stakeholders, particularly from the North Central zone, are demanding either the presidency or vice presidency in 2027, citing their historical exclusion from these positions since 1999. This demand coincides with growing discontent within Shettima’s own North-East region, where critics argue that the Muslim-Muslim ticket has failed to deliver tangible benefits to the masses.
Despite the All Progressives Congress (APC) vehemently denying any rift, the speculation persists. The question remains: will Tinubu retain Shettima as his running mate in 2027? Political analysts are divided. Some argue that dropping Shettima would be a strategic blunder, alienating a crucial political base. Others, like Dare Glinstone Akiniyi of the PDP National Youth Group, believe Tinubu might sacrifice Shettima to court northern Christians and the North Central, albeit at the risk of internal party turmoil.
Potential replacements for Shettima include Ribadu, former Kano State Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, and NNPP chieftain Musa Kwankwaso. Each candidate presents a unique set of political calculations and risks, underscoring the high-stakes game of thrones unfolding within Aso Rock.
The coming months will be crucial in determining the fate of this political alliance. As the 2027 elections loom, Tinubu’s decision regarding Shettima will not only shape the political landscape but also define the legacy of his presidency.
