By Oracle
The 2026 Osun State governorship election is entering its decisive stage, with incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke emerging as the leading candidate in the ongoing collation of results, while the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, faces the difficult task of overturning a substantial deficit in the remaining results.
Available figures from the ongoing collation show Adeleke with 177,572 votes, representing about 50.5 per cent of the votes captured so far, while Oyebamiji has 158,588 votes, representing approximately 45.1 per cent. The figures give Adeleke a provisional advantage of 18,984 votes.
The figures cover results from 303 of the 332 wards, leaving 29 wards yet to be reflected in the reported collation figures at the time of the latest update. At the same time, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) continues to upload polling-unit results to its Result Viewing Portal, meaning the process remains fluid and the final outcome cannot yet be officially determined.
Adeleke’s Strong Starting Position
The significance of Adeleke’s current position goes beyond simply leading the scoreboard.
With an advantage of almost 19,000 votes, Oyebamiji does not merely need to win the remaining areas. He needs to win them by a sufficiently large margin to cancel Adeleke’s existing advantage.
Mathematically, Oyebamiji would need a net gain of at least 18,985 votes over Adeleke in the outstanding results to move ahead by one vote.
That makes the remaining collation particularly important.
If Oyebamiji gains 10,000 more votes than Adeleke in the outstanding results, Adeleke would still retain an 8,984-vote advantage. A net gain of 15,000 would still leave Adeleke ahead by 3,984 votes.
Only a net swing of 18,985 votes or more would completely overturn the current position.
Why the Race Is Not Yet Over
Despite Adeleke’s advantage, it would be premature to treat the election as concluded.
The outstanding wards could alter the final balance, particularly if they are concentrated in areas where the APC traditionally performs strongly.
The political geography of Osun makes this particularly relevant. The state has historically produced closely contested elections, with different parties maintaining strongholds across its senatorial districts.
In the 2022 governorship election, for example, Adeleke eventually defeated the APC’s Gboyega Oyetola statewide, but the distribution of votes varied considerably across the three senatorial districts. Adeleke’s strongest performance came in Osun West, while the APC remained highly competitive in Osun Central and Osun East.
The present contest therefore cannot be determined simply by counting the number of wards remaining. The crucial question is where those outstanding votes are located and what margins the two leading candidates are capable of producing there.
The APC’s Difficult Route to a Comeback
Oyebamiji’s path to victory remains mathematically open, but the scale of the required recovery is considerable.
For the APC candidate to overtake Adeleke, the remaining results would have to produce a dramatic reversal of the current pattern.
A simple example illustrates the challenge.
If the outstanding results give Oyebamiji 50,000 votes and Adeleke 40,000, the APC candidate gains only 10,000 votes on his rival. Adeleke would therefore still finish with a 8,984-vote advantage.
If Oyebamiji receives 55,000 against Adeleke’s 35,000, the APC candidate gains 20,000 votes and would overturn the existing margin by approximately 1,016 votes.
Consequently, the APC’s challenge is not simply to win the outstanding wards. It must win them decisively.
Adeleke Remains the Favourite
On the figures presently available, Adeleke should be regarded as the clear favourite to retain the governorship, although not yet the officially declared winner.
His lead is sizeable, his vote share is above 50 per cent in the current collation, and the burden of the comeback rests heavily on the APC candidate.
The situation could be described as Adeleke having one hand on the trophy, but the trophy cannot be formally awarded until INEC completes the collation and makes its declaration.
The distinction is important because election-night projections and official declarations are not the same thing.
The Bigger Political Picture
Beyond the numbers, the election represents another important test of the political strength of the major parties in Osun State.
Adeleke is seeking another term after his 2022 victory over Oyetola, when he secured 403,371 votes against Oyetola’s 375,027.
Oyebamiji, meanwhile, represents the APC’s effort to reclaim the governorship.
The contest has consequently been viewed as a major two-way battle, with Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) also participating as a significant third contender.
The closeness of Osun’s political contests in recent years means that neither camp can afford complacency until the last result has been properly collated.
Possible Outcome
Based strictly on the figures currently available, Adeleke has the stronger probability of emerging victorious.
For Oyebamiji to change that projection, the remaining results would need to produce a substantial APC advantage capable of wiping out the existing 18,984-vote deficit.
Therefore, while a comeback remains mathematically possible, the available numbers currently point more strongly towards an Adeleke victory than an Oyebamiji upset.
The responsible conclusion, however, is to await INEC’s completion of the collation.
At this stage, the most accurate description is:
Adeleke is leading, Adeleke is the favourite, but INEC has not yet declared Adeleke the winner.
The final political verdict will come only when the outstanding results are collated, reconciled and officially announced by the electoral commission.
