— Over 45% of Senators Face Losing Their Seats Ahead of General Elections.
A political earthquake is gathering force as governors, former governors and powerful kingmakers marshal resources to seize seats in the National Assembly, threatening the re-election bids of nearly half of the incumbent Senate. Findings by Sunday PUNCH indicate that more than 45 per cent of current senators could struggle to secure return tickets amid fierce battles over party structures, consensus deals and alleged impositions by entrenched interests.
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is the epicentre of the scramble, with several outgoing governors already positioning themselves for Senate slots as they approach the end of their tenures in 2027. The scramble has ignited fresh intra‑party tensions, undermining the notion of incumbency advantage and turning many Senate bids into bruising contests.
High‑profile senators tipped for defeat include Saliu Mustapha (Kwara Central), Suleiman Sadiq (Kwara North), Lola Ashiru (Kwara South), Solomon Adeola (Ogun West), Adetokunbo Abiru (Lagos East), Ahmad Lawan (Yobe North), Tahir Monguno and Kaka Lawan (Borno), Sarafadeen Alli and Abdulfatah Buhari (Oyo), Aliyu Ahmed (Nasarawa West), and Buba Umar Shehu (Bauchi South). Other vulnerable lawmakers include Ireti Kingibe (FCT), Lawal Usman (Kaduna Central), Khalid Mustapha (Kaduna North), Gbenga Daniel (Ogun East), Kelvin Chukwu (Enugu East) and Ned Nwoko (Delta North).
The pressure is not only from incumbents but from a wave of ex‑governors preparing comebacks. Names of sitting and former governors now linked with senatorial ambitions read like a who’s who of the country’s political heavyweights: AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (Kwara), Abdullahi Sule (Nasarawa), Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Babagana Zulum (Borno), Muhammadu Yahaya (Gombe), Mai Mala Buni (Yobe), Babajide Sanwo‑Olu (Lagos), Dapo Abiodun (Ogun), Seyi Makinde (Oyo) and Bala Mohammed (Bauchi). In Imo, APC has reportedly endorsed Hope Uzodimma for Imo West, setting up a showdown with Senator Osita Izunaso and former governor Rochas Okorocha. In Ogun East, Governor Dapo Abiodun’s interest threatens incumbent Gbenga Daniel’s reelection bid.
The turmoil was on full display when the Senate briefly moved to amend its Standing Orders to bar first‑time senators from contesting principal offices — a change widely seen as an attempt to shut out incoming governors and former governors from leadership positions. The move was swiftly reversed after intense backlash, underlining the depth of the contest for control of the 11th National Assembly.
Political parties outside the APC are also feeling the heat. Labour Party voices insist their seats are secure, with national publicity secretary Ken Asogwa defending Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe’s position in Abia. Meanwhile, the fledgling Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) says it has fielded an open and fair nomination system and is ready to absorb defectors fleeing alleged manipulation in other parties. “We are fully prepared because many people are rushing from the APC and other parties to the NDC,” said NDC deputy national publicity secretary Abdulmumin Abdulsalam, warning that perception of unfair primaries is driving defections.
The New Nigeria Peoples Party’s national chairman, Yusuf Bala, warned that attempts by APC governors to install “anointed” candidates risk entrenching a one‑party system — a prospect he says the NNPP will resist. He also urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to guarantee a level playing field for all parties.
The stakes are high: the current Senate makeup — APC 87, ADC 8, PDP 4, NDC 3, APGA 1, Labour Party 1, Accord 1, and four vacant seats — could be dramatically reshaped by the 2027 cycle. With ex‑governors and sitting governors crowding the field, the Senate risks becoming a retirement hall for state executives rather than a chamber of seasoned legislators — a transformation that could alter the balance of power in Nigeria’s democracy for years to come.
