A new political group, primarily made up of northern elements feeling sidelined within the All Progressives Congress (APC), is gearing up to become the main opposition to President Bola Tinubu’s administration in the upcoming 2025 elections. This development is highlighted in a recent report by SBM Intelligence titled “The Year Ahead – Caught in Currents,” released on December 20, 2024.
The report outlines a shifting political landscape in Nigeria, predicting realignments that could significantly redefine opposition politics. It suggests that this emerging group will capitalize on growing discontent in northern Nigeria, leveraging it to challenge the ruling party’s dominance in the region.
Recent months have seen a surge in vocal opposition from prominent northern leaders against Tinubu’s administration. The report states, “A new political group will emerge as the main opposition to the Tinubu Administration. It will be clustered around the northern elements that are out of favour in the APC.”
Tax Reform Bill Sparks Controversy
A key trigger for this political shift is the controversial tax reform bill proposed by President Tinubu. The bill has ignited a heated national debate, particularly among influential northern leaders who fear it could exacerbate regional inequalities and worsen existing economic challenges in the North. Prominent figures, including Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum and former Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal, have raised alarms about the bill’s potential socioeconomic impact, arguing that it could impose disproportionate burdens on an already struggling northern Nigeria.
Amid mounting pressure from northern governors and a bloc of 73 northern lawmakers, the House of Representatives has opted to indefinitely suspend debates on the contentious bill. The SBM Intelligence report notes, “The biggest fiscal reform that is likely to commence implementation in 2025 is the tax reform.” Despite significant political resistance from the North, the report anticipates that President Tinubu will push through the reforms.
The opposition centers around the belief that the proposed reforms would deepen the economic divide between Nigeria’s wealthier southern region and its economically fragile northern counterpart.
Internal Tensions Within the APC
As tensions rise, President Tinubu faces challenges from within the APC, losing support from key northern politicians such as former Senate Chief Whip Ali Ndume, who was recently removed from his position over alleged anti-party comments. His replacement by Senator Tahir Monguno of Borno North reflects a consolidation of loyalty among Tinubu’s allies as they push back against dissent.
In August, the Shettima-led National Economic Council advised the President to withdraw the National Tax Reform Bills to allow for better alignment among stakeholders. Despite this, staunch defenders of Tinubu, including National Security Adviser Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and Minister of State for Defence Bello Matawalle, have rallied in support of the President, attempting to counter criticisms and reinforce his agenda.
Notably, Ribadu’s influence is expected to rise significantly in 2025, potentially overshadowing Vice President Kashim Shettima as the administration’s de facto second-in-command. The report states, “Nuhu Ribadu, the National Security Adviser, will become more prominent in 2025 and will begin to eclipse VP Kassim Shettima.”
Conclusion
The emergence of a new political group from the north could reshape the opposition dynamics leading up to the 2025 elections. With growing discontent and internal party tensions, the Tinubu administration may face significant challenges in maintaining its grip on power.
