By Muhammad Mamman
Recognition is one thing; transformation is another. For former Senate President David Mark and ex-Interior Minister Rauf Aregbesola, the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) decision to affirm their leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is not the end of a battle, but the beginning of a sterner test.
With the 2027 elections fast approaching, the real question is no longer who leads the ADC, but whether this new leadership can unite, mobilise and position the party as a credible national force before Nigerians return to the polls.
From Coalition Dreams to Party Fractures
The ADC, once dismissed as a fringe outfit, shot into national prominence earlier this year when opposition figures rallied under its banner. On paper, the coalition appeared simple: a respected platform helmed by statesmen such as Mark and Aregbesola.
But politics is rarely straightforward. Within days, old cracks resurfaced. Longstanding members accused the coalition leaders of hijacking a party they had built over two decades. At the centre of resistance stood Nafiu Bala, the former Deputy National Chairman, who insisted:
“They (coalition leaders) are not members of the ADC. If they wish to join, they should go to their wards and obtain membership cards.”
What followed was a bruising contest of legitimacy, fought both in courtrooms and in the media.
INEC’s Decision and Fresh Ripples
On Wednesday, INEC updated its records to formally recognise Mark as National Chairman and Aregbesola as National Secretary of the ADC. In bureaucratic terms, it seemed routine. In political terms, it was seismic.
Critics, including Dumebi Kachikwu, the ADC’s 2023 presidential candidate, slammed the decision as “irresponsible”, arguing that court cases challenging Mark’s leadership are still pending.
Regional Undercurrents
Across Nigeria’s six zones, the implications are already unfolding:
- South-East: Meetings are underway in Ebonyi and Anambra, though scepticism lingers in Enugu and Abia.
- South-West: Aregbesola’s presence could rally Yoruba voters, but entrenched rivalries in Osun and Lagos remain obstacles.
- North-Central: Mark’s base provides an anchor, but PDP dominance looms large.
- North-East & North-West: ADC remains weak, though rumours of Atiku Abubakar’s entry into the party could alter the calculus.
- South-South: A united ADC might eat into PDP’s hold, especially with the support of influential ex-governors.
The Bigger Challenge: Winning Trust
While INEC’s decision gives Mark and Aregbesola legitimacy, Nigerians remain sceptical. The electorate is tired of recycled promises and elite deals sealed in boardrooms. What matters now is grassroots mobilisation, inclusivity, and real community impact.
Without reconciliation, Bala’s loyalists could maintain parallel structures, weakening the party’s national appeal. On the other hand, a united ADC rallying behind a single vision could reshape the political landscape ahead of 2027.
A Nation Watches
The ADC’s rise over recent months has been dramatic – complete with heroes, villains, betrayals, and courtroom battles. Yet, the larger question remains: can Nigeria’s opposition reinvent itself in time?
For David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola, INEC’s recognition is a prize – but also a burden. For Nigerians, the stakes are far greater: the hope, perhaps, of a genuine alternative in 2027.
