Political actors remain the biggest security threat to the August 15 Osun State governorship election, a retired Assistant Inspector-General of Police, Abutu Yaro, has warned.
Yaro said political actors often stoke tension and manipulate the electoral process for their preferred outcomes, stressing that their conduct would largely determine whether the election would be peaceful.
He spoke in Abuja during the stakeholder presentation of the 2026 Osun Election Integrity and Security Assessment by Kimpact Development Initiative.
The report, which examined electoral pressures, risk scenarios and strategic mitigation priorities ahead of the poll, identified 12 local government areas as high-risk areas.
Yaro, however, said adequate security preparation alone would not guarantee a peaceful election if political actors continued to provoke the system.
“To ensure that the election is free, fair and transparent, I think one of the many things is that it starts from the conduct of the political actors themselves,” he said.
According to him, political actors are funded, sponsored and guided by interests that often seek to produce preferred electoral outcomes.
He said, “If political actors restrain themselves from stoking the system and allowing normalcy to prevail, there will be no insecurity.”
Yaro said elections should not be treated as a war, noting that ordinary voters had no interest in violence.
“Election is not supposed to be a war-like preparation,” the retired police chief stated.
He added that farmers, peasants, drivers and market women who participate in elections were primarily interested in casting their votes and seeing the results reflect their wishes.
“But unfortunately, the political actors hijack the process and stoke in a lot of actions and inactions that provoke violence,” he said.
Yaro further warned that no matter how prepared the security agencies were, insecurity could thrive if political actors failed to exercise restraint, patriotism and respect for electoral rules.
He also called for adequate provision of logistics for election officials and security personnel, saying poor preparation could generate public anger.
He listed vehicles, welfare for election managers and operatives, Permanent Voter Cards, electronic gadgets and other necessary platforms as part of the requirements for a successful election.
According to him, election materials must also arrive at polling locations on time to prevent frustration among voters.
“A situation whereby people stay in the rain, in the sun, for three or four hours without the arrival of voting materials, or without the arrival from EC8A, which is the most cardinal instrument of election, certainly public anger will be provoked and many things will go outside control,” he warned.
The retired AIG also identified the spread of unverified information as another major threat to election security.
He urged conventional and social media practitioners to exercise restraint and avoid publishing unverified reports capable of inflaming tensions.
“Unverified reports and slanderous use of media space for the purpose of election outcome is the greatest security threat to our system,” Yaro said.
He also advised members of the public to rely on verified information from the Independent National Electoral Commission and the police rather than unverified social media platforms.
Meanwhile, KDI’s Executive Director, Bukola Idowu, said the Osun election was significant because it would serve as an important test ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Idowu said the organisation had identified several factors that could trigger violence, including the preparedness of the electoral commission, the functionality of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the neutrality of security agencies.
She said the conduct of security agencies was particularly important following the recent removal of the Osun State Commissioner of Police over perceived neutrality concerns.
Idowu said violence could also be deliberately used to suppress votes by creating fear among residents in affected communities.
“When you create fear in the heart of people and they will not come out on election day, that is vote suppression. And that is not what we want to see,” she said.
She noted that the last voter turnout in Osun was about 43 per cent, expressing concern that renewed violence could further discourage citizens from participating in the election.
According to her, the outcome and management of the Osun election will provide important lessons for the 2027 elections.
She said the poll would be the first competitive election in which the Electoral Act signed into law by President Bola Tinubu would be tested, particularly on issues relating to margin of lead, results management, electronic transmission and electoral litigation.
Idowu urged stakeholders to take preventive action, stressing that the credibility of the election would depend not only on the absence of violence but also on whether voters could participate freely and institutions acted impartially.
